Preparations are underway in the South Sumter area for the arrival of Tropical Storm Isaac along the Northern Gulf Coast. The current NHC forecast calls for landfall to be in the area of New Orleans late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. The forecast calls for the storm to come on shore as a category one or possible a category two storm. The problem with this storm is the size and reach of the eastern portion of the storm. The effects of the storm could be felt as far as 500 miles from the center of circulation on the eastern side of the storm. Thankfully, the winds have no been severe and hopefully that trend will continue in the outer rings. However, heavy rain and the potential for small tornadoes will be a threat to the area if the storm continues on its current forecasted track. See the official forecast track below along with the forecasted wind fields and the expected reach.
Remember that there are still models out there that don’t agree with the official track. The model shown below is the HRW model and it indicates that it expects the storm to be hitting the Mississippi and Alabama Coast in 43 hours. The models still have quite aspread on them, and we will simply have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Friday saw multiple lines of storms move through the South Sumter area. One of the storms was warned when it moved into the area and caused widespread damage throughout the town of Cuba and the Kinterbish community. Several area outbuildings and one home received damage to the roof and to the structure. Conversations with the National Weather Service and local homeowners indicate that the damage was caused by a downburst or microburst. Fire department units and Cuba Police responded to reports of damage in the area and assisted with power lines down and traffic obstructions. Fire units assisted the homeowner that received significant roof damage tarp the roof of her home as well. Below are a few images from the area:
Radar imagary right before the storm hit the Cuba area. The radar indicated that the storm was packing hail close to an inch in size and nickel size hail was reported south of the area as well.
Damage to the roof of a home in the Cuba area.
One of the outbuildings that had its roof removed. If you look closely in the background you can see the roof of this structure in the trees behind it.
Another outbuilding that was heavily damaged on the Northern side of town. (Photo by S. Boyd)
The current forecast is on track and a moderate risk of severe weather covers the Sumter County, Alabama area this morning. Once again, the highest severe weather risk is well to the North of the area, but certain trends are beginning to indicate that the risk might be climbing over this part of the area as well. It is too early to say what will happen, but the sun popping out in the West Alabama area and the temperature steadily climbing does not look like a good recipe (Temp 74/DP 66). With air that charged early in the day and the sun popping out this could be a rather long day. Here is a good look at the current forecast thinking and graphics.
The SPC has elected to have a high risk over the TN and KY areas today and a large moderate risk that extends from the Sumter County area all the way back into the upper Ohio Valley. All modes of severe weather are possible in this event.
The SPC Tornado numbers are rather high as well. It is good to note that we are on the lower end of the spectrum, but this will have to be watched as the day progresses.
Looks like there will be quite a bit of wind damage over the entire area if this graphic verifies. Remember that these percentages are the likelihood of severe weather as described in the graphic occurring within 25 miles of a given point on the map.
This is the significant tornado parameter over the RUC model for this evening around 1900. Don’t get hung up on a specific time but do note that the numbers are elevated. Anything above a one needs to be watched.
Graphics from NWS Jackson
Numbers have not been this high on the NWS BMX graphics for a good while. There will be further updates today on our site, but stay tuned to the national weather service in Birmingham for further updates. Remember, don’t assume everyone knows there is a risk or that there has been a warning. Contact your neighbors and let them know of the danger so that they can prepare.
The SPC has increased the severe weather risk for the Sumter County area on Friday. The Moderate risk has been brought down into the Sumter County area. The highest risk is still off to the north, but the threat over our area is significant. Full details will be posted in the morning.
The entire area will be under a risk of severe weather on Friday evening due to a powerful storm system that is taking shape to our west today. The good news is that the highest percentatges and chances of severe weather are off to our north (as they have been in the previous events). The projected threat areas are based upon the present forecast, and they are subject to change with the next package. One item I would note is that the SPC has elected in the last several updates to move the threat levels to the south. Here are the graphics that are current for this particular threat.
SPC Day 2 outlook. Next major change will be just after midnight.
Would not be suprised to see a high risk in the Kentucky or central Tennennesee area.
Prepare now for severe weather impacting the area.
The secondary tornado season has been rather busy for the Sumter County area this year. There is an additional threat of severe weather in the area today. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has outlooked our area with a slight risk of severe weather today (standard risk). In the past hour the NWS BMX has narrowed the threat area to the west central portion of the state. They have also lowered the risk of tornadoes, but state that a few isolated tornadoes are still possible over the area.
Tornado Watch #895 has been issued…
The South Sumter area has been impacted by large amounts of rain brought by Tropical Storm Lee. The area suffered very only a few downed trees and some missing shingles but Lee has certainly busted the drought that was holding much of Alabama in its grips. Here is a look at the radar estimated rainfall that has impacted the area. This information has been confirmed by reports from Siloam Fire units indicating that around eight inches of rain has fallen in the area.
The South Sumter area remains under a tornado watch until 0700 in the morning and the worst of the weather being churned up by tropical depression Lee is only a county or two west of the area. The rainfall has begun to increase in intensity and should continue to do so throughout the overnight hours and into tomorrow. While the areas is in need of rain, too much rain in one period of time will give us some trouble. Here is a currently look at Lee and a current look at rainfall accumulations early this morning.
Current location and forecast track of Lee.
Radar estimated rainfall for the storm period. This graphic will most likely get a lot more colorful in coming hours.
The 1300 report on Lee indicates the following:
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES
Some slight increase in strength may occur before the system crosses the shore. Radar continues to indicate a large shield of rain moving into the southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi. The radar also indicates several tornado warnings over the south Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana area. There is a risk of tornadoes with all land-falling systems and there is also the danger of some tree damage throughout the area due to the winds that will be associated with Lee. However, the main threat with this system is the large amount of rain that will be dropped over the area. Here are the current graphics related to Lee.
Current NHC product on Lee.
A combined image of radar data and forecast models. The official track brings the remnants of Lee directly through the South Sumter area.
The rain totals are beginning to climb. The HPC has maintained a forecast like this for several days.
Tropical Depression 13 is active in the Gulf of Mexico and is likely to become a tropical storm before making landfall. The official NHC intensity forecast keeps what could become Tropical Storm Lee at tropical storm strength before making landfall on the North Central Gulf Coast. While there could be some minor tree damage in the area due to the winds associated with this storm it is certain that the main threat will be heavy rain. A weak tropical system should ease the drought conditions for most of Alabama and the rest of the southeast. The only problem with this system could come from slow forward speed and interaction with other weather features in the area. The area is slated to receive around five to nine inches of rain if the current forecast verifies. Here are the current forecast images and positions of the storm.
Current NHC product.
0600 Model output from the GFS. It depicts the center of circulation over west Alabama Monday Afternoon.
Expected rainfall for the area for the next five days.