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January « 2010 « South Sumter Fire

Archive for January, 2010

Tornado Watch #4

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WW0004 Radar

Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes

Moderate Moderate

Hazard
Likelihood
Severe Wind65 kt+ WindModerateLow
Severe Hail2″+ HailLowVery Low

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   SEL4

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   310 AM CDT THU JAN 21 2010

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

          WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
          THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
          SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
          COASTAL WATERS

   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 310 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   SELMA ALABAMA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA FLORIDA.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 3...

   DISCUSSION...NNE/SSW QLCS IN CNTRL MS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   ENEWD...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS/CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR
   SHALLOW WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL MS TO THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE.  DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION...ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS... SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT
   250 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES ESE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST.  ALTHOUGH
   WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY/RESIDUAL RAIN-COOLED SFC LAYER
   LIKELY WILL MITIGATE OVERALL SVR THREAT...POTENTIAL WILL
   NEVERTHELESS EXIST FOR SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.  THE
   LATTER THREAT MAY BE GREATEST WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE
   QLCS...AND WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE/LONGER-LASTING STRUCTURES NEAR
   WARM FRONT.  OVERALL THREAT SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY ENE WITH TIME.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

   ...CORFIDI

Severe threat marginal…

The threat of severe weather is still with us, but the threat is marginal.  At the moment it would appear that any activity would be elevated in nature and this would severely limit the possibility of tornadoes.  The threat of hail and wind will still be with us until the line of storms moves through the area after the morning hours.  Further, it is possible that the SPC could issue a tornado watch for this area, but they are most likely to issue a Thunder Storm Watch if anything.

Update from BMX…

Tornado Watch to the west…

The SPC has issued a new tornado watch to our west and stopped the eastward progression of the watch at the Alabama state line.  It is likely that this could be extended to the east later in the night as the line of storms approaches.  Remember that storms don’t worry to much about state lines and while we may not see any severe weather we will see quite a bit of rain and lightening this evening.  The continued rain could be trouble for us this weekend when more is expected to fall over our area.  Stay safe and listen for further updates!

One item to notice is that fact that the risk for tornadoes has increased with this watch statement.

Tornado Watch Possible Within the Hour…

Mesoscale Discussion 28
MD 28 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0859 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN AR INTO MS/WESTERN AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...2...

   VALID 210259Z - 210430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1...2...CONTINUES.

   ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP EASTWARD
   FROM NORTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN AR INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND
   PERHAPS W/SW AL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SCHEDULED 04Z
   EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH 1...ONE OR MORE NEW/REPLACEMENT TORNADO
   WATCH/ES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 0330Z.

   AMIDST AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF DEEP CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF A
   NEGATIVE TILT/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK/NORTH TX...EMBEDDED
   SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E-NE FROM
   NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL LA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MS AND SOUTHERN
   AR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHIN A REGION
   OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT VIA 1-2 KM SSW FLOW OF 40+
   KT...WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH/MODESTLY INCREASING
   MOISTURE FAVORABLE FOR A SUSTAINED/EASTWARD EXTRAPOLATING EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND W/SW
   AL OVERNIGHT.

   ..GUYER.. 01/21/2010

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33289314 33719154 33198949 32548821 30618806 30939043
               31579220 32479315 33289314

#1

The SPC has issued the first tornado watch of the new year for a large area to our south and west.  The potential for severe weather is still with us, but the activity that pushed through here this afternoon could help limit instability to a certain extent.  The possibility of a watch in our area later this evening and tonight is pretty good and conditions will have to be watched, but we are in good shape at the moment.

At the current time NWS radar from Jackson indicates a line of storms trying to develope along the MS/LA border.  Also notice the continued developement over the I59 corridor to our south.

Significant Weather Alert… North Sumter

WWUS84 KBMX 201958
SPSBMX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
158 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

ALZ030-202030-
SUMTER-
158 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CST…

AT 158 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EMELLE…OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
YORK…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE…
  PAYNEVILLE.
  EMELLE.
  WEST UNION.
  GAINESVILLE.

$$
75

Storms firing to the south…

Storms are firing to the SW along the I59 corridor.  At present there is a warning in effect for the Jones and Jefferson Davis County area.  These storms will continue to move up the I59 corridor through the afternoon and might make it to this area.  At the present the temperature in the South Sumter area is around 70, but the dew points are hovering just below the 60 mark.  This will serve to limit instability and reduce or risk of severe weather in the are for the time being.  Any watches or warnings that are issued will be posted here as well as issued over the radio. 

It should also be noted that this activity is not at all we will see today.  The main line of storms will impact the area later tonight.  Remember that Flash Flood watches are in efffect for areas west of us and there is a river flood warning in place for the Tombigbee River in Sumter County.

Wednesday Weather Update…

The most recent update to the SPC Outlooks were just made and the Sumter County area remains under slight risk for severe weather today.  At the present time it appears that the best chance for severe weather in the area will be from the late afternoon through the early morning on Thursday.  The main threats still appear to be large hail and damaging winds in this area due to the limited instability this system will have to work with.  The following are the SPC general outlooks and categorical outlooks.

Tornado Probability

Hail Probability

Damaging Thunderstorm Wind

The workding from the NWS office in Birmingham indicates that the threat will exist tomorrow evening and Thursday morning as well as the possibility of some development on Thursday afternoon.  Again, the main threat would appear at the moment to be large hail (due to the large amount of Gulf moisture and the very cold air aloft).  This system will be monitored and further updates and information will be placed on the site where possible and most certainly on the radio system as the threat gets closer.

Dual Weather Threats…

The weather picture still looks like their could be some marginal severe weather here in the late Wednesday time frame.  While it is never possible to rule anything out or call for anything to occur for certain, the chance of severe weather has been persistent in the model runs for some time.  The chief threat looks to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.  While none of that sounds very good the fact that we don’t mention tornadoes is a good thing and sure makes me rest a little easier.  The GFS model paints the following picture for this first system…

Aside from the severe weather threat there still seems to be a threat of further flooding rains in the area.  The system on Sunday seems to have a bit more to work with and if warm air advection can force higher dew points into the area we could have a significant threat.  The SPC is outlooking the entire Mississippi and Alabama area for severe weather in the Saturday and Sunday time frame.  The graphics from the SPC are shown below in a later post and will likely change as time goes on.   It is likely that it will be Thursday before we have a good idea of what the actual chances of severe weather look like on Sunday. 

Another weather related item is the prospect of another blast of cold air in our area in the first portion of February.  One of the main contributing factors to the extreme cold in our area this past month will once again show its face in February.  The Arctic Oscillation, or AO, will once again go strongly negative in the first to middle of the month.  This could most certainly spell a return to much colder weather.  After all… Winter is not over yet!