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Archive for January, 2010
Tornado Watch #4
Jan 21
Severe threat marginal…
Jan 21
The threat of severe weather is still with us, but the threat is marginal. At the moment it would appear that any activity would be elevated in nature and this would severely limit the possibility of tornadoes. The threat of hail and wind will still be with us until the line of storms moves through the area after the morning hours. Further, it is possible that the SPC could issue a tornado watch for this area, but they are most likely to issue a Thunder Storm Watch if anything.
Update from BMX…
Jan 20
Tornado Watch to the west…
Jan 20
The SPC has issued a new tornado watch to our west and stopped the eastward progression of the watch at the Alabama state line. It is likely that this could be extended to the east later in the night as the line of storms approaches. Remember that storms don’t worry to much about state lines and while we may not see any severe weather we will see quite a bit of rain and lightening this evening. The continued rain could be trouble for us this weekend when more is expected to fall over our area. Stay safe and listen for further updates!
One item to notice is that fact that the risk for tornadoes has increased with this watch statement.
| Mesoscale Discussion 28 | |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN AR INTO MS/WESTERN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...2... VALID 210259Z - 210430Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1...2...CONTINUES. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN AR INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND PERHAPS W/SW AL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SCHEDULED 04Z EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH 1...ONE OR MORE NEW/REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH/ES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 0330Z. AMIDST AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF DEEP CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF A NEGATIVE TILT/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK/NORTH TX...EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E-NE FROM NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL LA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MS AND SOUTHERN AR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHIN A REGION OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT VIA 1-2 KM SSW FLOW OF 40+ KT...WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH/MODESTLY INCREASING MOISTURE FAVORABLE FOR A SUSTAINED/EASTWARD EXTRAPOLATING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND W/SW AL OVERNIGHT. ..GUYER.. 01/21/2010 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33289314 33719154 33198949 32548821 30618806 30939043 31579220 32479315 33289314 |
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#1
Jan 20
The SPC has issued the first tornado watch of the new year for a large area to our south and west. The potential for severe weather is still with us, but the activity that pushed through here this afternoon could help limit instability to a certain extent. The possibility of a watch in our area later this evening and tonight is pretty good and conditions will have to be watched, but we are in good shape at the moment.
At the current time NWS radar from Jackson indicates a line of storms trying to develope along the MS/LA border. Also notice the continued developement over the I59 corridor to our south.
WWUS84 KBMX 201958
SPSBMX
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
158 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010
ALZ030-202030-
SUMTER-
158 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CST…
AT 158 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EMELLE…OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
YORK…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE…
PAYNEVILLE.
EMELLE.
WEST UNION.
GAINESVILLE.
$$
75
Storms firing to the south…
Jan 20
Storms are firing to the SW along the I59 corridor. At present there is a warning in effect for the Jones and Jefferson Davis County area. These storms will continue to move up the I59 corridor through the afternoon and might make it to this area. At the present the temperature in the South Sumter area is around 70, but the dew points are hovering just below the 60 mark. This will serve to limit instability and reduce or risk of severe weather in the are for the time being. Any watches or warnings that are issued will be posted here as well as issued over the radio.
It should also be noted that this activity is not at all we will see today. The main line of storms will impact the area later tonight. Remember that Flash Flood watches are in efffect for areas west of us and there is a river flood warning in place for the Tombigbee River in Sumter County.
Wednesday Weather Update…
Jan 20
The most recent update to the SPC Outlooks were just made and the Sumter County area remains under slight risk for severe weather today. At the present time it appears that the best chance for severe weather in the area will be from the late afternoon through the early morning on Thursday. The main threats still appear to be large hail and damaging winds in this area due to the limited instability this system will have to work with. The following are the SPC general outlooks and categorical outlooks.
Tornado Probability
Hail Probability
Damaging Thunderstorm Wind
The workding from the NWS office in Birmingham indicates that the threat will exist tomorrow evening and Thursday morning as well as the possibility of some development on Thursday afternoon. Again, the main threat would appear at the moment to be large hail (due to the large amount of Gulf moisture and the very cold air aloft). This system will be monitored and further updates and information will be placed on the site where possible and most certainly on the radio system as the threat gets closer.
Dual Weather Threats…
Jan 18
The weather picture still looks like their could be some marginal severe weather here in the late Wednesday time frame. While it is never possible to rule anything out or call for anything to occur for certain, the chance of severe weather has been persistent in the model runs for some time. The chief threat looks to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. While none of that sounds very good the fact that we don’t mention tornadoes is a good thing and sure makes me rest a little easier. The GFS model paints the following picture for this first system…
Aside from the severe weather threat there still seems to be a threat of further flooding rains in the area. The system on Sunday seems to have a bit more to work with and if warm air advection can force higher dew points into the area we could have a significant threat. The SPC is outlooking the entire Mississippi and Alabama area for severe weather in the Saturday and Sunday time frame. The graphics from the SPC are shown below in a later post and will likely change as time goes on. It is likely that it will be Thursday before we have a good idea of what the actual chances of severe weather look like on Sunday.
Another weather related item is the prospect of another blast of cold air in our area in the first portion of February. One of the main contributing factors to the extreme cold in our area this past month will once again show its face in February. The Arctic Oscillation, or AO, will once again go strongly negative in the first to middle of the month. This could most certainly spell a return to much colder weather. After all… Winter is not over yet!
