The current forecast is on track and a moderate risk of severe weather covers the Sumter County, Alabama area this morning.  Once again, the highest severe weather risk is well to the North of the area, but certain trends are beginning to indicate that the risk might be climbing over this part of the area as well.  It is too early to say what will happen, but the sun popping out in the West Alabama area and the temperature steadily climbing does not look like a good recipe (Temp 74/DP 66).  With air that charged early in the day and the sun popping out this could be a rather long day.  Here is a good look at the current forecast thinking and graphics.

The SPC has elected to have a high risk over the TN and KY areas today and a large moderate risk that extends from the Sumter County area all the way back into the upper Ohio Valley.  All modes of severe weather are possible in this event.

The SPC Tornado numbers are rather high as well.  It is good to note that we are on the lower end of the spectrum, but this will have to be watched as the day progresses. 

Looks like there will be quite  a bit of wind damage over the entire area if this graphic verifies.  Remember that these percentages are the likelihood of severe weather as described in the graphic occurring within 25 miles of a given point on the map. 

This is the significant tornado parameter over the RUC model for this evening around 1900.  Don’t get hung up on a specific time but do note that the numbers are elevated.  Anything above a one needs to be watched. 

Graphics from NWS Jackson

 

Numbers have not been this high on the NWS BMX graphics for a good while.  There will be further updates today on our site, but stay tuned to the national weather service in Birmingham for further updates.  Remember, don’t assume everyone knows there is a risk or that there has been a warning.  Contact your neighbors and let them know of the danger so that they can prepare.