The Severe Storms Predictions Center has increased the risk of severe weather across the area for Saturday to a moderate risk.  They have placed the numerical value of 45% on the threat of severe weather within 25 miles of any point on the map.  After discussing the forecast with the local NWS in Birmingham and reading the products from the SPC it is my conclusion that a high risk of severe weather will appear on the maps tomorrow morning for some area of west central Alabama.  It is likely that we will be on the southern edge of this high risk hatched area, but due to the fact that the environment will be quite charged tomorrow the area could move quite a bit as the system evolves.  Lastly, more reports will come out throughout the day on this system and we will have a really good look at this system just after midnight when the SPC convective outlooks are up. 

The moderate risk area is quite large and that tends to speak to the severity of this potential threat.  Also included below is a Special Weather Statement from the NWS office in Jackson, MS about tomorrows system.

WWUS84 KJAN 222024 AAA
SPSJAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231500-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
324 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

…PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG AND
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES…

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK…AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A NEARLY 24-HOUR LONG PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE ARKLAMISS REGION. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. TORNADOES…SOME STRONG AND LONG-TRACK…
ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER…AND
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF AT LEAST 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE ENTIRE SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
2 AND 9 PM. THEREAFTER…THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DECREASE BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ALSO…A
DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON
SATURDAY…WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS…TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD
RESULT CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.

THIS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS.
EVERYONE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD BE AT A HIGH STATE OF
READINESS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE.