The tropical Atlantic is beginning to get active.  That is no surprise with sea surface temperatures in the Southern Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico running well above normal.  Forecasters had warned that this season would likely be above normal and it would appear that we are on track to visit the above normal season.  The National Hurricane Center is closely watching a disturbed area of weather, associatedwith a tropical wave, some distance off the Southern coast of the Island of Hispaniola.  The latest model charts are included below as well as the latest intensity forecast.  While the models have not been able to get a good grasp on the system the majority of them indicate that the system will reach tropical storm strength.  This is bolstered by the NHC’s 50% or greater likelihood that the system will develop.  Further, some of the global weather models were picking up on the system and placing it off the Northern Gulf near the end of this week and the first of the next.  All eyes should be to the south on this one…