The tropical season is underway with yet another named storm. Bonnie has been trying to get her act together for the past several days and finally received a name from the NHC today. The storm will make it into the Gulf in short order, but the persistent 40 knot shear upstairs should keep it from becoming a monster. The current forecast models put Bonnie into South Louisiana and then re curving around the extreme high pressure that is sitting over Alabama. If the models hold true we could see very little from this storm, but you never know what will happen. We should keep our ears tuned to the latest and be ready to put out IAP into practice. Once a storm makes it into the Gulf it is anybodies guess where it will end up. Here are the current forecast maps and model output below.
Below is the intensity forecast for the storm. Note that the model consensus is for Bonnie to remain a tropical storm at the moment.
Here is the historical storm tracks for storms that originated near Bonnie’s genesis during the same time period in the past. Note the one storm that run out directly over Sumter County!